Obama's South Asia Policy Goals

Presidential elections in USA are over, and there is a great deal of speculation in the Indian press as to the policies President Obama will follow in respect of India. Will he pressurize India to resolve Kashmir issue? Will he be able to prevail upon the government of Pakistan to see the ground reality that the real danger to them is not from India but from militant Islamic outfits?

It is difficult to say what the policy of the new South Asian policy of the new American administration will really be. But one thing is indisputable; their new policy will reflect their national interest as perceived by them presently.

Their major concern in South Asia is to ensure that i) they win the war in Afghanistan, and ii) the nuclear assets in Pakistan do not fall in the hands of the Jehadi outfits. Every thing else is subordinate to these two supreme policy goals of theirs.

There is a general feeling in some quarters that India is deliberately dragging her feet in resolving the Kashmir dispute. Their argument is that Indian establishment feels that Pakistan is militarily and economically too weak to take on India on this issue, and therefore, sooner or later a combat fatigue will set in the mind of Pakistani establishment. So Indians feel let us talk blah, blah, blah with them and tire them out. This hypothesis may be true, false or partially true. But the Obama administration is bound to keep this possibility in their mind when formulating their options in respect of Indian subcontinent.

Americans have more leverage with Pakistan than with India. They don't any significant clout with us. Many people in India erroneously believe that the Indo-American nuclear deal give American an upper hand over them. But, fact of the matter is that the nuclear deal is as much in their favor as in ours. The deal had bipartisan support, and Obama is on record supporting it. It is very unlikely that he will do anything to upset the new understanding reached with India on the basis of the deal. With Pakistan they have huge leverage. The economy of Pakistan is in tatters and the health of their armed forces depends upon American supplies. However, their leverage with Pakistan is diluted by strong anti-American feelings in that country.

How will Obama administration promote American interests by balancing mutually hostile Pakistani and Indian concerns? That is a question which time alone can answer. It will require tight rope-walking and intense diplomatic maneuvering by India, Pakistan and the USA. It is like the classic three-body problem in Mathematics which is extremely complicated.