The Chinese Dilemma

The Chinese government are on the horn of a dilemma. If they are not, they ought to be.

The US has politely warned China not to go forward on their plan to build two more nuclear reactors in Pakistan without first taking approval of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China is a member of the 45-member NSG, which controls the international commerce in nuclear fuel and nuclear technology. All the decisions of NSG are taken consensually. That means every member country has veto power. Pakistan’s record of non-proliferation is not very inspiring, and it is unlikely that the Chinese will be able to get a consensus on their proposal to co-operate (whatever that might mean in practical terms!) with Pakistan in constructing two ostensibly civil nuclear reactors Chasma-III and Chasma-IV.

Chinese hugely care for their reputation as a country which believes in the ethical value of commitment to an international treaty. It is not easy for them to ignore the advice of the US administration.

It was only during the last month that the Chinese decided to sell two nuclear reactors to Pakistan to be located at Chasma. Chasma is a small town located near the well-know Chasma Barrage built on the river Indus in Punjab. The designated site already has got two reactors Chasma-I and Chasma-II built with Chinese assistance. The first one is active and is generating 300 MWe of electric power. The second one will be completed shortly.

The Chinese offer came in the wake of Indo-American nuclear deal concluded in October 2008. Pakistan felt diminished by the deal and their self-esteem got wounded. They fell back on their old ally China, who promised them give them two reactors, if not a nuclear deal comparable to the one reached between the USA and India. The offer of the two nuclear reactors had materialized during the visit of the Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to Beijing. It helped the newly elected Zardari improve his domestic image.

It appears the Chinese decision was taken in a hurry without analyzing the implications. The Chinese perhaps reasoned that giving nuclear reactors to Pakistan made sense because (a) it would dilute to some extent the risks posed by the burgeoning Indo-American alliance against them, (b) give them more political clout in Pakistan, and (c) further depress an already poor image of the USA in Pakistan.

Obviously, they did not think of wider implications. They forgot their commitment to NSG as one of its responsible members.

If they withdrew their offer now in face of the American warning, they would be accused of having made a diplomatic faux pas in making the offer. They might also be talked about of being incapable of standing against the mighty Americans. It will give cause them embarrassment vis-à-vis Pakistan. On the other hand, if they persist in honoring their offer to Pakistan, they seriously risk damaging their image of being a reliable international player who plays by the rules of the game. Not only this, their membership of a large number of international organizations might come under cloud.

I predict Chinese will not do anything, except doing nothing. They will not display any reaction to the American advice. With the passage of time, the story of their foreign policy gaffe will pass into oblivion.