The North Korean Imbroglio

The underground nuclear explosion on May 25, 2009 by North Korea caused tremendous political irritation all over the world. USA did not know how to respond.

Quantification of the destructive power of the North Korean blast is not clear. The test was done underground and the blast creates vibrations in the earth which can be measured on the Richter scale, just as in the case of an earthquake. The Geological Survey of the USA estimated the blast to be of the order of 4.7 on the Richter scale. It corresponds to the explosion of four kilotons of TNT. The preparatory commission for the CTBT at Vienna, which has 39 tracking stations located all over the world determined the magnitude of the blast to be of the order of about 4.5. Assuming these estimates to be not much off the mark, we can conclude that the magnitude of the North Korea blast generated yield of 4 to 5 kilotons of TNT. Nuclear weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had yields of 15 and 22 kilotons of TNT respectively.

The May 25 explosions highlighted the helplessness of the USA. President Obama’s comment that it was “a flagrant violation of the International Law” does not sound convincing because the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) under which the Korean nuclear test would have been illegal has not yet entered into force. Ironically, even the USA has not yet ratified the CTBT. However, it can be argued with some justification that the nuclear test by North Korea was clearly violative of the Security Council's Resolution no 1718 of 2006, and hence it did violate the International Law. Its staunch allies Japan and South Korea stand exposed to nuclear blackmail by the North Korean totalitarian regime. Russia and China do not have anything to fear. The Chinese are only concerned about the possibility of mass exodus of the North Korean refugees should the hostilities break out in the region. Russians do not have any serious concern. Japan and South Korea have most to worry and fear as their entire technological and industrial complexes lie exposed to North Korean nuclear missiles. Americans are also worried about the safety of 28,000 American troops in South Korea and more than 30,000 of them in Japan, who will be sitting ducks should the mad rulers of North Korea decide to unleash their nuclear fury against them. However, that is only a theoretical possibility. Howsoever mad or naïve Kim Jong-il might be he cannot underestimate the devastating American retaliation, which will finish him off and bring Stone Age to his country.

There are various speculations as to why North Koreans should go for an atomic test at point of time. One theory is that Kim Jong-il is upping his ante in the game of brinkmanship vis-à-vis the Americans. He and his advisers seem to have calculated that playing the nuclear card at this point will ultimately get them a better deal from the Americans. Another theory is that it might be easy to sell a tested weapon for which there is ample demand in the West Asian black market. Yet another theory is that Kim is suffering from the megalomania and wants North Korea to be accepted as a de facto nuclear state. Some analysts also guess that Kim ordered the nuclear test to promote his strong man image with the North Korean military establishment. Whatever the reasons might be, the North Korean test explosion has created enormous political turmoil in the region. If the American navy intercepts the vessels destined for North Korean ports for carrying the contraband nuclear material or equipment, there might be violent reaction from the North Koreans. It may even trigger off hostilities in the region with the risk of a nuclear exchange. North Korea has nothing to lose in such a situation because they not have a worthwhile industrial base. It is difficult to predict what turn the events will take in such a scenario. Even a 5-kiloton nuclear device dropped on South Korea and Japan would be a catastrophe. It would create a situation which will not be rectified by massive nuclear retaliation by the Americans.

The American strategy has been transparently to prevent hostilities in the northeast corner of Asia. Since the mid-nineties, the North Korean policy of the USA has lacked a strategy. That is one of the reasons why their policy has failed and the United States are groping in the dark for viable options in face of the belligerent behavior of a small country. Since the time when the power in North Korea passed from Kim Il-Sung to Kim Jong-il in 1993-94, the American policy had been to disarm the North Koreans by appeasement by way of negotiating with them. The Bush Administration leaned heavily on six-nation talks, hoping that China would use her leverage with North Korea. American lack of leverage was obvious in the six-nation deliberations.

The Security Council will no doubt tighten the existing sanctions against North Korea, and perhaps enact more sanctions. However, it is unlikely to go for military sanctions against the erring regime, because of the Chinese veto. Chinese, no doubt, are annoyed with North Korea by its latest nuclear folly. But they will not allow their close ally to be upended ignominiously. For one, the nuclear weaponry of North Korea is not a threat to China, just as the nuclear weaponry of the UK is not a threat to the USA. Secondly, should China pressurize North Korea by restricting food and oil, it might open the floodgates of millions of refugees pouring into China. Thirdly, keeping a small naughty country holding dagger at the American troops in Japan and South Korea is an entertaining spectacle to the Chinese Communist Party. They have yet to realize that if the present situation is allowed to continue, Japan may jump into nuclear arms race. A nuclear-armed Japan is not a pleasing prospect for China.

South Korea has announced that it will become a full member of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) to curb trade in weapons of mass destruction. North Korean reaction was on expected lines. They said, “Any tiny hostile acts our republic, including the stopping and searching of our peaceful vehicles……will face an immediate and strong military strike in response…. Our military will no longer be bound by the armistice accord as the current US leadership….has drawn the puppets (South Korea) into the PSI.”

White House supports enforcing the 2006 resolution by the Security Council that permits the inspection of vehicles suspected carrying nuclear or missile components. However, there are practical difficulties. The American intelligence is poor in this field. It is ironical that President Bush had last year removed North Korea from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. Now the American administration is trying to find a face-saving way to reverse that decision.

What are the viable American options in the present scenario? One of the plausible options for the USA is to pre-empt the possibility of nuclear mischief by the North Koreans by destroying their nuclear infrastructure by heavy conventional bombing. China or Russia may make some noises but their noises will lack the political amplitude. The pre-emptive American strike will also send a strong message to the recalcitrant Iranian regime.

There are indications that Americans are bracing for a strong action. Speaking on ABC’s This Week, the Secretary of State Clinton said if the test and other recent actions by North Korea did not lead to “strong action”; there was a risk of “an arms race in Northeast Asia”.

The North Koreans are supplementing their nuclear folly by showing off their delivery vehicles. North Korea does not have a missile having a credible long enough range to reach the United States. However, there are some indications that they are preparing to another test of their long-range ballistic missile Taepodong-2. Their first Taepodong-2 fired on July 5, 2006 was a miserable failure. It flew only for 35-40 seconds after the launch.

They test-fired a long-range ballistic missile on April 5, 2009. The three-stage missile traversed over Japan and first stage of the rocket fell into the Sea of Japan, and the other rocket stages as well the payload fell into the Pacific Ocean. It was calculated that the rocket reached 3850 kilometers from the launch site. There are hints that they may be making preparations for another test of Taepodong-2. If they do it is bound to exacerbate the already tense situation in the region.

Key to the solution of the North Korean Imbroglio lies with the Chinese. They have got the clout and the leverage. They supply them with fuel, food, power plants and money. But will the Chinese have the foresight to see the consequences of their policy of letting the situation drift? It is a question on the answer of which lies the prospect of world peace. If war erupts in the northeast region of Asia, we do not know how it will it end.

Strictly speaking, the Korean War that took place in the middle of the last century never came to ended. Only an armistice was signed on July 27, 1953. With the passage of time the peace in the Korean peninsula has solidified along the famous 38th parallel of latitudes. Both sides of this line, huge military concentrations of rival regimes of North and South Korea stare at each other. Neither side wants war, however. South Korea is afraid of the huge enemy artillery trained on Seoul and also the lately developed nuclear weapon capacity. North Korea, on the other hand, is acutely aware of the devastating military might of the United States and the American prowess in technological warfare. North Korea cannot expect to win the war. But it will not be a cakewalk for the Americans, either. China, the prime player in the region, also does not want war as it might give rise to a militant, and possibly nuclear-armed Japan. In spite of their vast military superiority, the Chinese psyche retains the traumatic experience at the hands of the Japanese imperialist machine.